The Diesel High Performance Truck Market Is Still Growing

President Biden puts F-150 Lightning through the paces.

It has to be fun to be a president. Fun might not be the most apt word when you think about hostile critics and the need to have a thick hide. Nevertheless, there are some perks that come with the job. For example, last week President Joe Biden took a ride in the new EV Ford F-150 Lightning. His little cruise on the Ford test track made headlines across the country.

That news story brought to mind another story that got headlines when Teddy Roosevelt was president at the beginning of the last century. Roosevelt had approved the development of a new submarine for the U.S. Navy. It was called The Plunger. Some people were critical of the submarine as a weapon because it seemed un-American to use stealth to sneak up on enemies rather than fight face-to-face.

When the submarine was completed and tested, the president used his executive authority to go take it for a spin. That is, President Roosevelt wanted to see what it was like to be submerged underwater, to check it out and experience it first hand rather than simply get reports from the captains. The day he went out there was a storm, but with the Plunger twenty or forty feet underwater (depending on which account you read), it was a perfectly smooth excursion, ever though the surface was turbulent.

There were critics (this is where the thick skin is useful) who castigated him for risking his life for a unique nautical expedition. Nevertheless, he thoroughly enjoyed the experience.

ALL THIS CAME TO MIND as I read about a new report on the global growth of the diesel high performance diesel truck market. EVs are making headlines, but analysts who look at what is really happening (as opposed to what is generating buzz) acknowledge that the diesel market is still in a growth mode. 

An April MarketWatch report states that the diesel engines market was $7,921 million in 2019 and will be $9743 million in 2025. Part of this growth is driven by a surging demand in construction and auxiliary power equipment. 

Another report by Industry Growth Insights is projecting continued growth through 2028. Though their data analysis sees a tapering of the growth rate, the diesel engine market will not see a decline for quite some time. A report by The Shot Caller has similar expectations. Their report predicts growth to the end of 2026, with an implied continuation into 2027. 

No one can say for sure how quickly the adoption of EVs will occur. For now, there's limited infrastructure and a multitude of hurdles for EVs. 

The news stories regarding the unveiling of the EV Ford F-150 Lightning have focused on Ford's bold embrace of the EV future, making a risky bet on their number one selling truck. There's another side to the story, however, which we covered earlier this month. Ford engineers are developing a new diesel engine design utilizing an old-style concept. (See The Next Ford F-150)

In other words, Ford management is preparing for a future that can go either way. For now, the need for diesel power is continuing to grow, and the leaders recognize this. 

Related Links
President Roosevelt's Trip Aboard The Plunger
A Lot is Riding on F-150 Lightning Electric Truck

The Next Ford F-150: Combining Old-Style Diesel Tech in a Futuristic New Design

As any student of automotive history knows, truly "new" breakthroughs don't just happen. Perhaps they are conceived in an "aha" type of moment but the engineering can take years to work out. All kinds of new engine designs have been conceived during the past century. Most of what we are familiar with are incremental improvements on basic designs. Even these take time to work out the kinks. For this reason many vehicle owners are reluctant to jump right in on the first year of a new engine design.

Needless to say, automakers and engine builders work very hard to minimize the speed bumps. Extensive testing is a given. And it all takes time.

Last month The Drive published a story about a new engine design for the next Ford F-150. The tech article by Caleb Jacobs takes a look at the direction Ford is taking with its most popular truck. The goal here is not just fuel economy but energy efficiency, and to achieve it they are drawing upon an older tech concept: pre-chamber ignition.

We've been reading a lot about pickups getting bigger, stronger and more muscular. What Ford is doing here is moving in the direction of diesel's other strength: efficiency. Jacobs opens by noting that with the dawn of a new EV age, most manufacturers are putting their creative energy in that direction, not in new technologies dependent on oil. What Ford realizes, however, is that the EV revolution is going to take decades till full adoption. The benefits outweigh the risks when you think it through.

At this point I will interject that there was a time when the earth was considered the center of the universe. Copernicus proved otherwise, that we were just a tiny speck in a massive decentralized space. This realization became known as "The Copernican Revolution." That is, the idea the earth was at the center and everything revolved around us was now proven wrong. Funny thing is, this "revolution" took 100 years before it became accepted as widespread knowledge. So it is that transitions take time, and though the EV revolution is more than two decades old, it has only just begun.

Ford has been investing heavily in this new engine design, $10 million over three years. Here's an attempt to describe what they are working on.

Last fall Road and Track did a story on Maserati's new MC20 Supercar that uses pre-chamber ignition. "Pre-chambers are exactly what they sound like: separate chambers inside the cylinder head connected to the main cylinder area. There are two types: active and passive. Active pre-chambers contain a spark plu and fuel injector, and ignite after a lean air-fuel mixture is brought into the cylinder. Normally, this mixture wouldn't have enough fuel to ignite on its own, but the fuel from the pre-chamber is enough to create an optimal air-fuel ratio, and speeding up the combustion process, improving efficiency."

The pre-chamber concept is an old diesel idea that has been used in the racing world as well. The Ford engineers are adding a little twist to the concept, some kind of compressed-air alongside the fuel injector. The objective is "to achieve faster, cooler combustion that burns fuel more completely while also producing fewer NOx emissions."

The real challenge is always in the translation from drawing board to reality. In theory, this will bring us one step closer to the ideal truck of the future, powered by fuel and not batteries, powerful and efficient simultaneously. 

Another surprising feature of the new engine design is that it will be 15% lighter than the current engine, with subsequent improvement in mpg as well. 

Go check out the story here at The Drive. They also have a video there on how the pre-chamber ignition setup works. 

This Road & Track story explains and clarifies Maserati's pre-chamber ignition design.

National Biodiesel Conference Sees Future of Renewable Diesel as Looking Up.

According to an article in Biodiesel Magazine the future of the industry is on an upward trajectory. The article, by the National Biodiesel Board, is titled Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel Industry on the "RISE" in 2021.

Last week the National Biodiesel Board "hosted more than 550 biodiesel and renewable diesel producers, distributors, retailers, and other industry advocates virtually to share the direction of the industry now and in the future. During the National Biodiesel Conference & Expo, NBB celebrated the many achievements for the industry in the face of adversity."  

During the conference NBB CEO, Donnell Rehagen praised the industry's tenacity, never giving up in the face of great headwinds caused by Covid and the economic turbulence. “Our members continually beat expectations year after year and there is a lot to be excited for moving forward," he said.

During the conference, updates were shared for each of its core program areas. Attendees got a glimpse of the future direction and influences for the industry. Here's a brief summary of what was shared regarding these core program areas.

 

Federal Affairs 
“As a new Congress and new administration take shape in Washington, emerging proposals to decarbonize the energy and agriculture sectors, modernize transportation infrastructure, and incentivize research and development of cleaner fuel sources can provide new market opportunities for the biodiesel industry,” said Kurt Kovarik, Vice President of Federal Affairs. “NBB’s federal affairs team is monitoring the policy environment and preparing members to RISE to the occasion.”

State Affairs 
“State programs and incentives are driving the demand for a low carbon future,” shared Floyd Vergara, Director of State Governmental Affairs. “We continue to see a growing number of aggressive carbon policies coming out of various states, regions, and even municipalities that help set the stage for monumental industry growth. States like California, expected to reach a milestone of one billion gallons of biodiesel consumed last year, realized our industry message – Biodiesel: Better, Cleaner, Now – was right on target for seeing environmental benefits immediately.”

Sustainability 
“The science supporting the carbon reduction potential of renewable fuels grows in importance by the day,” said Matt Herman, Director of Environmental Science. “Studies documenting the lifecycle emissions of biodiesel--including feedstocks, potential indirect land use change, and the fuel production process -- show that the carbon reduction potential of our member’s products is increasing. Our consistent message to all stakeholders, Biodiesel: Better, Cleaner, Now, is backed resoundingly by current science. Our sustainability team will continue efforts to ensure laws, regulations, and voluntary carbon reduction pledges properly reflect the sustainable nature of the fuels our members produce.”

Communications 
“Storytelling remains top of mind in 2021,” shared Samantha Turner, Communications Manager. “Awareness and positive impressions of biodiesel and renewable diesel among key audiences help maintain critical support for the industry -- the number one goal of NBB's communications efforts. We want to RISE this year, and in years to come, with increased outreach on our Vision and mission, sharing with our industry how we will grow from three billion to six billion gallons.”

Technical 
“The fuels industry continues to reinvent itself. With sweeping changes to emissions, aftertreatment devices, and limits, as well as electricity generated from renewable resources, NBB works to ensure biomass-based diesel fuels provide the performance and benefits required by users, regulators, and the public,” said Scott Fenwick, Technical Director. “We designed each element of our technical program to help ensure higher volumes of biodiesel and renewable diesel may be used in every diesel market segment, growing market access for our members.”

Outreach and Development 
“With our Vision in mind, we depend on today’s and tomorrow’s farmers and oilseed processors. A six billion gallon industry in 2030 will demand more than 18 billion pounds of soybean oil each year. However, we will need our other leading feedstocks to aid in that production as well,” explained Tom Verry, Director of Outreach and Development. “Our U.S. farmers will continue to lead the way in producing the feedstocks necessary to provide a better, cleaner future. Given the push to reduce carbon, we predict growing momentum for our Vision throughout 2021 and the years to come.”

* * *

The program ended with confidence that goals will be achieved and an invitation to next year's National Biodiesel Conference and Expo, which will mark the 30th anniversary of the industry on January 17-20, 2022 in Las Vegas.

NOTE: NBB is the U.S. trade association representing the entire biodiesel and renewable diesel value chain, including producers, feedstock suppliers, and fuel distributors.

LINKS

Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel Industry on the "RISE" in 2021

The NBB Mission and Vision

http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/articles/2517357/biodiesel-renewable-diesel-industry-on-the-undefinedriseundefined-in-2021  

GM Has a New Logo.What Do You Think?

When companies change their logo it is a pretty big deal. All your stationary, all your packaging, all your users manuals, all your web pages... everything needs to be updated. The bigger you are, the bigger the challenge. For that reason, when a logo gets a makeover, it's not a frivolous decision.

While watching the first weekend of the NFL playoffs I noticed a couple commercials with a new look for their companies. But it wasn't there that noticed the new GM logo for the first time. Rather, it was here in a barbed story from Fast Company: General Motors' New Logo Is the Biggest Branding Fail of 2021, So Far. The article begins:

Over the last week we’ve seen a rash of rebranding efforts by major companies such as Burger King and Pfizer. Now, General Motors announced it too had a New Year makeover, unveiling a new logo aimed to reflect its commitment to the production and sale of electric vehicles.

When companies make a move of this nature, they usually accompany it with a publicity campaign in which they explain their rationale. That is, since decisions like this can't be made lightly, it is useful to take the opportunity to draw attention to what the new look is attempting to convey. Here's what GM had to say about it:

The new GM logo features a color gradient of vibrant blue tones, evoking the clean skies of a zero-emissions future and the energy of the Ultium platform [GM’s EV battery system]. The rounded edges and lower-case font create a more modern, inclusive feel. The underline of the “m” connects to the previous GM logos as well as visually representing the Ultium platform. And within the negative space of the “m” is a nod to the shape of an electrical plug.

Essentially it's an environmental message and a commitment statement. It reads like a sales pitch from an ad agency to the GM marketing team, who in turn took it to the top to see if it would fly. And apparently it did.

Jeff Beer, the author of this article, does not share the same enthusiasm for this re-branding effort that GM does. The problem, according to Beer, is trust. Trust is an essential part of any relationship between consumers and companies. Beer cites the 20% drop in Tropicana's sales after they rebranded in 2009. (Which included 5 months of design work and a 35 million dollar campaign.)

GM says they are in an evolutionary state, moving toward a future with "zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion." These ideas are contained in a logo concept that Beer feels has zero history, zero trust and zero originality. On top of all that Beer sees it as just plain bland.

* * * 

2001-2010

The Fast Company piece compares the GM re-branding to Ford's Bronco launch last summer which focused on that company's history and legacy. Beer's barbed probe questions GMs motivations, too. Does GM feel challenged by Tesla? Is this re-branding an effort to re-captured the future in the imaginations of its consumers?

At the New York World's Fair the GM Pavilion, a.k.a. Futurama,  was equally future-focused. Imaginations were stirred by concept cars that looked very different from what we drove in the Fifties, almost space-aged. There comes a time when being too tied to the past is perceived as dated. "We're not your father's Oldsmobile" is a famous campaign that implied cutting ties with the past. 

Nearly all the previous logo designs maintained that stodgy, square, solid block with a GM in the middle. Today's logo is more fluid, organic. 

What do you think about this new look? Leave a comment. We'd really like to hear.

Related Links

Here's a cool web page where you see all the logos from General Motors' history since 1908. The first 30 years its Certificate of Incorporation served as its logo. https://logos.fandom.com/wiki/General_Motors

New Logo Is the Biggest Branding Fail of 2021, So Far (Fast Company story)

Diesel Fuels Power the Workhorse Vehicles of Both Our Present and Future

This past summer there was an article in Diesel Forum that explained why diesel power will continue to power the U.S. economy. The article presents data regarding the extent to which diesel powers the economy in the present and a key insight as to why diesel will continue to be a workhorse in the future. 

The August 2020 article, titled Fuels That Work: Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel and Biodiesel Power the U.S. Economy, begins by noting that nearly half the sectors in our economy rely heavily on diesel. 

The author writes, Diesel fuel and engines are often described as the platform of work. Diesel fuel is the most energy dense transportation fuel available, and the diesel engine is the most efficient means to transfer this energy density into useful work, while gasoline is almost exclusively used in the fleet of passenger vehicles. 

That last statement refers to the U.S. pascar market, inasmuch as diesel has made much deeper inroads in the E.U.

When we think diesel, many people first think of over-the-road transport vehicles. The reality is that diesel engines power heavy duty trucks, buses, locomotives, marine vessels, ferries, ag and construction equipment and even stationary industrial engines.

KEY INSIGHT  
The article goes on to explain why diesel has an edge when it comes to the future of power. 

A key advantage to the use of renewable biodiesel fuels is that compared to competing alternatives, they do not require the purchase of new vehicles, equipment or engines nor do they require expensive additional investments in refueling or recharging infrastructure. Their benefits can be felt immediately across entire fleets of vehicles, rather than only in newly acquired vehicles dependent on new infrastructure.  Biodiesel fuels can be stored, used, pumped and handled virtually the same way as petroleum diesel products.

These are significant points. One can tout the benefits of an EV future, but how much cost and transition time will there be? The goal should not be an EV future but a Clean future. This means all options are on the table, and diesel will be part of it for a very long time. 

Here's another strong point the author makes. 

Driving a global economy requires a steady supply of available, affordable and diverse energy sources. As the prime mover of the global economy, diesel technology continues to evolve to use the fuels more efficiently and with fewer emissions. 

Diesel's ability to efficiently generate power, especially in the new generation of diesel engines, fuels and equipment, is the reason diesel will play a role powering the economy for years to come.

Read the full article here:
https://www.dieselforum.org/policyinsider/fuels-that-work-ultra-low-sulfur-diesel-and-biodiesel-power-the-u-s-economy

A Diesel Engine That Runs On Ethanol?

Photo by Katherine Volkovski on Unsplash

A Norfolk Daily News story last week announced that a Chicago company, ClearFlame Engine Technologies, has been developing an ethanol-based fuel that can power diesel engines. We're not talking E-85. We're talking about ethanol itself. If this is true, it's quite the breakthrough.

Before getting into the story, I would note that using ethanol as fuel for diesels has many challenges.  According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, there are many technical barriers to the use of ethanol in diesel fuel. 

The Milestone Report begins by citing the reasons ethanol was considered for fuel in the first place. The NREL cited these benefits of Ethanol-diesel blends:

 • Displacement of imported petroleum with a domestic and renewable resource.
• Significant lowering of diesel particulate matter emissions.
• Possible improvement in cold flow properties imparted by the ethanol.
• Possible improvement in fuel lubricity imparted by the emulsifier additives. 

 The challenges, however, are many. They include:

• Low flashpoint of this fuel. E-diesel cannot be safely handled like conventional diesel but must be handled like gasoline. This may necessitate some modifications to storage and handling equipment, as well as vehicle fuel systems. Some stakeholders believe that this fact limits the market for e-diesel to centrally refueled fleets, estimated to represent some 5 billion gallons of diesel fuel annually. If the market is limited to fleets, E-diesel represents a potential market for fuel-grade ethanol of several hundred million gallons.
• Obtaining OEM warranty acceptance. Currently engine manufacturers will not warrantee their engines for use with e-diesel because of concerns about safety and liability, as well as materials and component compatibility. A large body of test data acquired in close cooperation with the OEM’s will be necessary to address this issue.
• EPA fuel registration requirements. As a non-baseline diesel fuel, e-diesel will be required to undergo Tier 1 and Tier 2 emission and health effects testing, a time consuming and expensive process. In addition to these major concerns there are issues related to quantifying the stability, water tolerance, and other fuel properties of e-diesel.

* * * 

In light of these objections to increasing the percentage of ethanol in blended e-Diesel, it surprised me to read that a company has been working on a 100 percent ethanol fuel for diesels. The Norfolk Daily News article is  titled Tech Company Develops Diesel Engine That Runs On Ethanol.

BJ Johnson, co-founder and CEO of ClearFlame Engine Technologies, says their mission is to decrease tailpipe emissions and build a low-carbon future.

“What our solution allows is to maintain all of the performance, fuel economy, torque, and practicality of the diesel engine design, but without the need for any diesel fuel and replacing it with 100 percent renewable ethanol. Which not only lowers your fuel cost, but also drastically lowers your emissions.”

Johnson said that "if just 20 percent of U.S. diesel trucks converted to ClearFlame technology, carbon reduction would eclipse 40% and ethanol demand would double." 

* * * 

It is interesting to see the variety of approaches that are being explored to bring us a cleaner future. I always feel like it's too early to tell what route will take precedence over the others. It's like VHS and Beta all over agin, except that instead of a choice between two options, we still have a multitude of competing concepts in the works. Only time will tell.

Key Links

Milestone Report: Technical Barriers to the Use of Ethanol in Diesel Fuel

Tech Company Develops Diesel Engine That Runs On Ethanol

Abstract for a research paper on Diesel-Ethanol Blends

How Big Is the Diesel Market? It's Bigger Than You Think and Getting Bigger

Photo by Tomasz Frankowski on Unsplash

From childhood I've always been interested in the future. How about you? Not that there's anything wrong with the present, but sooner or later today will be long gone and the future will be our home. As a result, we find ourselves thinking about things like will people one day live on the moon or will cars float above the ground like a hover board in Back to the Future? 

That latter image came from the bck of a cereal box when I was a boy in the Sixties. They made it seem like this would take place in the 1980s. We would not only wear out tires, but would also be able to ride across rivers and lakes. Or so we imagined.

As far fetched as that all sounds, here is something that many people could not imagine: that loud, smelly diesel engines would not only get quieter but actually reduce emissions to near zero.  

The fact that this has been happening during the course of our lifetime has hardly received any fanfare, yet it's been happening. This is one reason why diesel is still a growth market. 

According to a recent article in MENAFN,  the diesel engine market will experience a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% per year for the next four years, to more than $332 billion dollars. The article briefly explains what diesel engines are and why this growth will continue.

An article about Clean Diesel in Diesel Technology Forum goes even further out in its projects. The forum authors write:

Diesel is projected to retain a dominant role, thanks to continuous improvement in emissions reductions and improving efficiency.

Today’s cleaner diesel fuels, advanced engines and effective emission controls combine to achieve near zero emissions for fine particles and smog forming compounds like oxides of nitrogen (NOx). Clean diesel’s proven energy efficiency and ability to use renewable fuels position diesel as a key technology to achieve cleaner air, lower greenhouse gas emissions and a sustainable environment around the world.

Cleaner diesel fuel, advanced engines and effective emissions control make up a new generation of diesel. It's clean diesel.

For more information, watch the video and read What Is Clean Diesel

While reading up on all these things I came across this statement at yet another site. By 2027, heavy-duty diesel trucks in the U.S. will deliver a majority of the anticipated 1 billion tons of CO2 reductions, thanks to improved fuel economy standards.

This is a topic that I am researching right now because of a couple articles I have read that seem to be excessively critical of diesel trucks right now.  The efficiency improvements in diesel engine technology have been nothing short of phenomenal. 

Have a great day and enjoy your ride.

The Future of Diesel

Interest in the future goes back to the dawn of man, no doubt. 19th century visionary Jules Verne, whose books took readers 20,000 leagues under the sea, to the center of the earth and around the moon, had his sights set on the future. H.G. Wells' Time Machine carried readers far into the future. And a whole host of 20th century sci fi writers have given us visions of a tomorrow filled with robots, androids and pre-cogs. 

These thoughts crossed my mind as I read this article about commercial trucks of the future. The headline asks, Does Diesel Have a "Sell By" Date? 

The article, appeared in the Diesel Technology Forum this week, notes that 90% of the trucks on our nation's highways and byways are currently diesel. Based on current trends, what will be the configuration of diesel technology and trucking in 2040? This is the author's prediction:

Fast forward twenty years from now, and trucks will most likely be powered by a diversity of fuels and technology. Some may be powered by hydrogen and fuel cells, some may be battery electric, some may be operating on renewable natural gas or renewable diesel fuel. In any event, according to many sources, rather than having a “sell by“ date, diesel will remain as the dominant technology moving the nation’s freight for decades to come. 

Despite California's efforts to the contrary, industry insiders seem to agree that a majority of over-the-road transporters will still be diesel powered. 

Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that less than 20% of our heavy-duty commercial trucks will be powered by electricity in 2040. IHS Markit makes a similar estimate. Others make similar proposals. 

As one who has been paying attention to these issues--emissions and fuel economy--for more than a quarter century, I believe that there is a disconnect between what the public understands and what is really happening. Diesel engine manufacturers have made remarkable strides toward cleaner production of efficient power. 

This is by no means an attempt to derail efforts to improve. The article goes on to note that diesel engines have the advantage of being adaptable to alternative fuels that can reduce emissions.

Diesel trucks also have the capability of operating on advanced renewable biofuels that drive down greenhouse gas emissions, operating on high quality blends of biodiesel or 100 percent renewable diesel fuel. These are fuels that have at least a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to petroleum, with renewable diesel fuel, GHG emissions are reduced by at least 80 percent.

Whereas it's impossible to forecast the future with perfect 20/20 vision, that doesn't mean we can't have inklings. The stories that fill the headlines don't always reflect the realities. I remember the 1970's when  it was said that we will run out of oil in 10 years. They said it again in the 80s and 90s. Now, some say, there is more oil in the ground than we will ever take out. 

I'm not losing sleep over it. Full article here: https://www.dieselforum.org/policyinsider/what-do-the-commercial-trucks-of-the-future-look-like-in-2040-does-diesel-have-a-sell-by-date

Photo credits: corey-oconnell-EPYIbF8ly14-unsplash
and brian-wangenheim (lower photo)