The Future of Diesel

Interest in the future goes back to the dawn of man, no doubt. 19th century visionary Jules Verne, whose books took readers 20,000 leagues under the sea, to the center of the earth and around the moon, had his sights set on the future. H.G. Wells' Time Machine carried readers far into the future. And a whole host of 20th century sci fi writers have given us visions of a tomorrow filled with robots, androids and pre-cogs. 

These thoughts crossed my mind as I read this article about commercial trucks of the future. The headline asks, Does Diesel Have a "Sell By" Date? 

The article, appeared in the Diesel Technology Forum this week, notes that 90% of the trucks on our nation's highways and byways are currently diesel. Based on current trends, what will be the configuration of diesel technology and trucking in 2040? This is the author's prediction:

Fast forward twenty years from now, and trucks will most likely be powered by a diversity of fuels and technology. Some may be powered by hydrogen and fuel cells, some may be battery electric, some may be operating on renewable natural gas or renewable diesel fuel. In any event, according to many sources, rather than having a “sell by“ date, diesel will remain as the dominant technology moving the nation’s freight for decades to come. 

Despite California's efforts to the contrary, industry insiders seem to agree that a majority of over-the-road transporters will still be diesel powered. 

Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that less than 20% of our heavy-duty commercial trucks will be powered by electricity in 2040. IHS Markit makes a similar estimate. Others make similar proposals. 

As one who has been paying attention to these issues--emissions and fuel economy--for more than a quarter century, I believe that there is a disconnect between what the public understands and what is really happening. Diesel engine manufacturers have made remarkable strides toward cleaner production of efficient power. 

This is by no means an attempt to derail efforts to improve. The article goes on to note that diesel engines have the advantage of being adaptable to alternative fuels that can reduce emissions.

Diesel trucks also have the capability of operating on advanced renewable biofuels that drive down greenhouse gas emissions, operating on high quality blends of biodiesel or 100 percent renewable diesel fuel. These are fuels that have at least a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to petroleum, with renewable diesel fuel, GHG emissions are reduced by at least 80 percent.

Whereas it's impossible to forecast the future with perfect 20/20 vision, that doesn't mean we can't have inklings. The stories that fill the headlines don't always reflect the realities. I remember the 1970's when  it was said that we will run out of oil in 10 years. They said it again in the 80s and 90s. Now, some say, there is more oil in the ground than we will ever take out. 

I'm not losing sleep over it. Full article here: https://www.dieselforum.org/policyinsider/what-do-the-commercial-trucks-of-the-future-look-like-in-2040-does-diesel-have-a-sell-by-date

Photo credits: corey-oconnell-EPYIbF8ly14-unsplash
and brian-wangenheim (lower photo)