Detroit May Have an EV Future But Diesel Is Still Alive and Well

The popularity of full-sized diesel pickups remains strong.

Earlier this month the president signed an executive order to have 40 to 50 percent of all cars to be electric by the end of the decade. GM and Ford anticipate that this will happen, but they also recognize that the demand for full-sized gasoline and diesel pickups is as strong as ever among consumers. 

Reuters released a story on Monday that stated the industry expects to build 3.3 million full-size pickups and SUVs this year in North America, virtually all gasoline or diesel powered. The demand is strong and will likely continue throughout the decade.

The popularity of big trucks may mystify some, but is no surprise to others. Lawmakers and pundits pounce on gasoline and diesel trucks as massive polluters, even though great strides have been made to reduce emissions and develop more fuel efficient engines.

The big three automakers issued a joint statement on August 5 regarding their "shared aspiration" to meet the president's 2030 target. "That goal would mean boosting annual North American output of electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to 7 million vehicles or more," wrote Paul Lienert, author of the Reuters piece.

The article's main thrust seems to be that the rate at which the automakers are rolling out EVs will be significantly less than intentions of the projected target. "The entire industry, however, is planning as of now to build just 2.6 million battery electric vehicles (BEV) and another 585,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in 2028, according to AutoForecast Solutions (AFS), which compiles production estimates that are widely used across the industry."

All forecasting is a tricky business, in part because there are so many variables at play. Based on current projections by the automakers, AutoForecast Solutions (AFS) states that EVs will account for 15% of production, and hybrids another 3.4%. EPA is projecting a similar but slightly smaller number.

It's not that there's an inability to make more EV vehicles. What's missing is demand. There's simply a lack of demand for battery powered cars, and to stay in business manufacturers must. build products people are willing to pay for. 

Ford has repeatedly reiterated that 40% of its global volume will be battery-electric by 2030. GM has stated again that it plans to eliminate tailpipe emissions from light-duty vehicles by 2035. The reality is that trucks and SUVs are in high demand and consumers are willing to pay premium prices for them. 

The article ends with a note about the 2021 semiconductor shortfall, which has been a headache for automakers. Demand is there but dealerships can't get enough vehicles to fill their lots.

Here's the article, along with some informative charts to make it visual.
Detroit sticks with trucks, SUVs despite lofty 2030 goals for EVs